UW-Madison UW-Madison

Staff Paper No. 469 - Abstract

Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Domincan Republic

Hector Zapata
T. Randall Fortenbery [trforten@wisc.edu]
Delroy Armstrong

Staff Paper No. 469, March 2005, 24p.


This paper examines the relationship between #11 sugar futures prices traded in New York and the world cash prices for exported sugar. It was found that the futures market for sugar leads the cash market in price discovery. However, we fail to find evidence that changes in the cash price causes changes in futures price, that is, causality is unidirectional from futures to cash. The finding of cointegration between futures and cash prices suggests that the sugar futures contract is a useful vehicle for reducing overall market price risk faced by cash market participants selling at the world price (i.e., not enjoying favorable trade incentives). Further reliability on the usefulness of the WSF as a price discovery market is found through the impulse response functions; a shock in the futures price innovation generates a quick (one month) and positive response in futures and cash prices; but not vice versa.
Last updated on Wed, Jun 1, 2005 2:53pm