UW-Madison UW-Madison

Staff Paper No. 468 - Abstract

Experience, Expectations and Hindsight: Evidence of a Cognitive Wedge in Stated Preference Retrospectives

Michael Bennett
Bill Provencher [rwproven@wisc.edu]
Richard Bishop [rcbishop@wisc.edu]

Staff Paper No. 468, March 2004, 28p.


This paper combines fishing trip decisions - made before observing trip outcomes - with responses to set of double-bounded dichotomous choice CV questions regarding the outcome of the trip, to explore cognitive elements of choice and their implications for decision modeling and welfare analysis. Extending the approach taken by McConnell et al. (1999), wherein the unobserved component of random utility is linked between the trip decision and the retrospective trip evaluation, we decompose the unobserved component into linked and independent elements, and make the linked component a function of cognitive factors hypothesized as affecting differences between the RP and SP responses. Results suggest that a significant "wedge" exists between the closely related trip decision and its retrospective valuation, and that this wedge is not fully explained by factors such as experience, recall, and unobserved time costs.
Last updated on Thu, Jun 2, 2005 8:55am